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Miracle Mountain

Probability puzzles require you to weigh all the possibilities and pick the most likely outcome.

 

Puzzle ID:#17877
Fun:*** (2.79)
Difficulty:*** (2.11)
Category:Probability
Submitted By:jimbo*au******
Corrected By:Winner4600

 

 

 



A hiker climbs all day up a steep mountain path and arrives at the mountain top where he camps overnight. The next day he begins the descent down the same trail to the bottom of the mountain when suddenly he looks at his watch and exclaims, "That is amazing! I was at this very same spot at exactly the same time of day yesterday on my way up."
What is the probability that a hiker will be at exactly the same spot on the mountain at the same time of day on his return trip, as he was on the previous day's hike up the mountain?
Is the probability closest to (A) 99% or (B) 50% or (C) 0.1% ?





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