The Werewolf Game
Game #3253: I was living to run running to
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This game finished in 6 rounds.
Thanks monkey
Well we need more interaction this round folks.
Don't get me started on odds
---This message was edited on 2017-08-04 13:26:13---
Every problem can be solved with a trick but finding that trick itself needs another trick.
Well we need more interaction this round folks.
Don't get me started on odds
---This message was edited on 2017-08-04 13:26:13---
Every problem can be solved with a trick but finding that trick itself needs another trick.
I gonna go ahead and vote MDC straight away. No other reason for night to time out. I don't think any wolf will try to time out nights intentionally
Every problem can be solved with a trick but finding that trick itself needs another trick.
Every problem can be solved with a trick but finding that trick itself needs another trick.
I'm also leaning towards voting again for MDC but want to wait until morning.
I will also post my list then because I now have a few thoughts on who the wolves might be. I also want to read last round since Brin was eaten to see if anything points to who may have dined on her for a midnight snack.
SMILE and people will wonder what you are up to!
I will also post my list then because I now have a few thoughts on who the wolves might be. I also want to read last round since Brin was eaten to see if anything points to who may have dined on her for a midnight snack.
SMILE and people will wonder what you are up to!
The brin eating was a NO-BRAINER given the consensus she was a divined human.
MDC is the best suspect bar none, but want to do some pair analysis , so lets not rush into anything just yet.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
MDC is the best suspect bar none, but want to do some pair analysis , so lets not rush into anything just yet.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Going through the game now, my heart's not totally into it but i will push through. Will wait on opening remarks from everyone else just to keep my analysis from getting exploited.
FYI, Jayo, a human streak of 7 games has a probability of 21% so it's not all that unlikely (0.8 ^ 7)
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
FYI, Jayo, a human streak of 7 games has a probability of 21% so it's not all that unlikely (0.8 ^ 7)
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Unfortunately I have seen games where wolves would still be purposely timing out rounds at this point in the game, like the one you were a wolf mnk
Index for WW/WTB databases - https://ksteven.github.io/playground/ (Data refreshed: 2021-12-07)
Index for WW/WTB databases - https://ksteven.github.io/playground/ (Data refreshed: 2021-12-07)
Which game was that?
I have completed my analysis but will hold of posting until get some meat on the table
(also FYI, you have about the same chance of being a WOLF TWO times in a row as you do of being a human 14 TIMES in a row) (0.8^14) == (0.2^2) = about 4% . Before Deb chimes in, this is BEFORE you know you are a wolf once in a row (i.e you are already half way there) From my perusal of the database, a 7 game Human streak is remarkably mild (you have at least 2 streaks over 14 Jayo, and I had one of 23)...depending on how you feel about the seer being included..and in a truly ironic twist, the player Ive found with the most 'anomalies' of wolf streaks is Deb
---This message was edited on 2017-08-04 10:05:23---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I have completed my analysis but will hold of posting until get some meat on the table
(also FYI, you have about the same chance of being a WOLF TWO times in a row as you do of being a human 14 TIMES in a row) (0.8^14) == (0.2^2) = about 4% . Before Deb chimes in, this is BEFORE you know you are a wolf once in a row (i.e you are already half way there) From my perusal of the database, a 7 game Human streak is remarkably mild (you have at least 2 streaks over 14 Jayo, and I had one of 23)...depending on how you feel about the seer being included..and in a truly ironic twist, the player Ive found with the most 'anomalies' of wolf streaks is Deb
---This message was edited on 2017-08-04 10:05:23---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Im bored, Im going to post my analysis anyway....just gotta load my chart and explain it
its a little on the bare side, but not the most involved game so far
Ok, so black is obvious, red is excluded pairs, blue is a special case where i think above average chance of getting wolf pair, yellow is sort of an "excluded trio" will explain these below....ordered just by ease of explanation...
Jayo: I have him not being a possible partner of MDC and Scrub. The MDC is for two reasons. He joined my vote for MDC back in Round 2 when he was in real genuine danger of being shot. This isn't an automatic DQ but Aisha was just a viable a candidate at that point and Jayo was playing it forthright and aggressively, no stalling or procrastinating about it. He also had his list in Round 3 which called him a human. At that point the player being shot was Aisha or MDC, it would make little sense for him to try to get MDC shot in Rd 2, reverse himself completely (when he stood a good chance of looking bad for it) and voting Harry (instead of at least voting Aisha to protect MDC. Feel fairly confident we can rule out Jayo/MDC
As for Jayo/Scrub, this is not as strong, but in the earlier portions of the game (Rds 1 and 2) They had sort of this odd banter about Scrubb taking froggy's immunity and congratulating him on making it to the next round. Its the kind of stuff that looks really questionable, There's little value in doing it deliberately so I would have to think they wouldnt take the risk, not to mention how cheesy it would be.
Frog Frog/MDC is the simplest case to exlude. Frog voted MDC last round, which for most players is not enough to rule them out, but Froggy is very anti-bus. It's not a sure thing, but pretty close especially added to the fact that they voted together (for Cab) in round 2. Froggy even observed this status and (somewhat ususually for her) didnt take her vote off the majority. It is VERY rare for wolves to vote alone as pairs at any point in the game, let alone this early. Probably the only absolute guarantee Id make about my list is ruling out Frog/MDC
Case Yellow
Mnky/Scrub/KZ It's easiest to explain this all together, it hinges almost entirely on the voting from last round. First, for the yellow, which is easy to explain. I would rule out Mnky/Scrub/KZ as the collective wolf team. It isnt unusual for one wolf to bus another (especially in Rd 3) but it would be very odd if the ONLY votes on a player (keeping him in some legit degree of danger) were his partners. So Scrub/Mnky works, KZ/Mnky works, but they dont all work together. Though for the reason I listed above on Frog/MDC, I dont think Scrub/KZ works as again wolves almost always seperate their votes unless absolutely neccessary.
while Im on the subject, I would rule out KZ/Harry as well, the posts from KZ about Harry are too assured about Harry being a human, if KZ is a wolf, he would be too insecure about his posts to confidently proclaim his partner a human the way he did.
Case Blue
KZ/Cat: I think this is one of the more likely pairs. Note throughout the game their insistence on voting one another. Cat voted KZ twice as his SPV and KZ voted Cat (rather than vote for Sirius due to it being his 'first game'). Them calling eachother wolves in their analysis is also a red flag. This looks a like standard hacky wolf/wolf vote swapping.
Last case I have noted is Cat/HP Im not very confident in it but I pushed through a little eagerly given the emptiness of the chart. They both posted late last round doing nothing other than basically naming the same suspects. Not a very common wolf move, and something Harry would avoid at all costs.
There are probably a few more pairs that are lower on the list but not strong enough to nix them at this point. This 2 for the price of 1 timeout is a bit of a fly in the ointment though.
My vote will almost certainly be between MDC/KZ/Cat......unless something big changes my outlook
voted KZ...at least to keep this a discussion and not a MDC freight train
---This message was edited on 2017-08-04 10:49:23---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
its a little on the bare side, but not the most involved game so far
Ok, so black is obvious, red is excluded pairs, blue is a special case where i think above average chance of getting wolf pair, yellow is sort of an "excluded trio" will explain these below....ordered just by ease of explanation...
Jayo: I have him not being a possible partner of MDC and Scrub. The MDC is for two reasons. He joined my vote for MDC back in Round 2 when he was in real genuine danger of being shot. This isn't an automatic DQ but Aisha was just a viable a candidate at that point and Jayo was playing it forthright and aggressively, no stalling or procrastinating about it. He also had his list in Round 3 which called him a human. At that point the player being shot was Aisha or MDC, it would make little sense for him to try to get MDC shot in Rd 2, reverse himself completely (when he stood a good chance of looking bad for it) and voting Harry (instead of at least voting Aisha to protect MDC. Feel fairly confident we can rule out Jayo/MDC
As for Jayo/Scrub, this is not as strong, but in the earlier portions of the game (Rds 1 and 2) They had sort of this odd banter about Scrubb taking froggy's immunity and congratulating him on making it to the next round. Its the kind of stuff that looks really questionable, There's little value in doing it deliberately so I would have to think they wouldnt take the risk, not to mention how cheesy it would be.
Frog Frog/MDC is the simplest case to exlude. Frog voted MDC last round, which for most players is not enough to rule them out, but Froggy is very anti-bus. It's not a sure thing, but pretty close especially added to the fact that they voted together (for Cab) in round 2. Froggy even observed this status and (somewhat ususually for her) didnt take her vote off the majority. It is VERY rare for wolves to vote alone as pairs at any point in the game, let alone this early. Probably the only absolute guarantee Id make about my list is ruling out Frog/MDC
Case Yellow
Mnky/Scrub/KZ It's easiest to explain this all together, it hinges almost entirely on the voting from last round. First, for the yellow, which is easy to explain. I would rule out Mnky/Scrub/KZ as the collective wolf team. It isnt unusual for one wolf to bus another (especially in Rd 3) but it would be very odd if the ONLY votes on a player (keeping him in some legit degree of danger) were his partners. So Scrub/Mnky works, KZ/Mnky works, but they dont all work together. Though for the reason I listed above on Frog/MDC, I dont think Scrub/KZ works as again wolves almost always seperate their votes unless absolutely neccessary.
while Im on the subject, I would rule out KZ/Harry as well, the posts from KZ about Harry are too assured about Harry being a human, if KZ is a wolf, he would be too insecure about his posts to confidently proclaim his partner a human the way he did.
Case Blue
KZ/Cat: I think this is one of the more likely pairs. Note throughout the game their insistence on voting one another. Cat voted KZ twice as his SPV and KZ voted Cat (rather than vote for Sirius due to it being his 'first game'). Them calling eachother wolves in their analysis is also a red flag. This looks a like standard hacky wolf/wolf vote swapping.
Last case I have noted is Cat/HP Im not very confident in it but I pushed through a little eagerly given the emptiness of the chart. They both posted late last round doing nothing other than basically naming the same suspects. Not a very common wolf move, and something Harry would avoid at all costs.
There are probably a few more pairs that are lower on the list but not strong enough to nix them at this point. This 2 for the price of 1 timeout is a bit of a fly in the ointment though.
My vote will almost certainly be between MDC/KZ/Cat......unless something big changes my outlook
voted KZ...at least to keep this a discussion and not a MDC freight train
---This message was edited on 2017-08-04 10:49:23---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Waiting to hear from more players..
The early bird gets the worm,but the second rat gets the cheese..
The early bird gets the worm,but the second rat gets the cheese..
All joking aside. Spider, I don't understand your attempts of finding pairings at all. I have fun talking about things that aren't always about hunting wolves and secret codes. I loved Harry's advice to Aish early in the game - and your response to his {worship harry} time.
The same thing is true about Jayo. I made a reference to showing up for round 1 because I sometimes miss the start of games. Once they start I know to check regularly. And last game I got eaten in round one. Jayo was just continuing my joke.
When I say I don't understand, I mean I don't get the possible connections. Why wouldn't two wolves banter? Believe me, I look at you and Harry and know you could both easily be wolves despite your long conversation at the start of last round.
The same thing is true about Jayo. I made a reference to showing up for round 1 because I sometimes miss the start of games. Once they start I know to check regularly. And last game I got eaten in round one. Jayo was just continuing my joke.
When I say I don't understand, I mean I don't get the possible connections. Why wouldn't two wolves banter? Believe me, I look at you and Harry and know you could both easily be wolves despite your long conversation at the start of last round.
As sharp or as fancy as wolves try to be, there are still basic wolf 'instincts' that control their playstyle (especially interactions with other wolves)
You can quibble at your peril with my methodology, I have done many pair analyses, and when I make a box red, it has not EVER been wrong
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
You can quibble at your peril with my methodology, I have done many pair analyses, and when I make a box red, it has not EVER been wrong
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
are we moving into the stall/hide phase of the game?
---This message was edited on 2017-08-04 12:46:31---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
---This message was edited on 2017-08-04 12:46:31---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I know this is only my third game this summer, but my analysis is based on player behaviors. Some people are impossible to read. And without even finding one wolf, I find it nearly impossible. I also realize that people change playing behaviors over time.
Cat - His total usual self. Sometimes he tries hard to post, but then he gets shot and claims it is because he was too active and goes back to what he is doing this game. Could be a wolf. I usually start to suspect him.
Froggygg - More calm than usual, but not significantly. She usually figures it out in the end, though. If she doesn't, then I know she is a wolf. Weird about the bRIN post this round. Even bRIN knew her time was up. Could be a wolf.
Harry - Human. But I have said this about Harry before. He is one of two players (Deb is the other) that I don't read well. I can be the seer and divine him as a wolf, and still believe his stories.
Jayo - IDK. He has not been challenged this game. Could be a wolf.
KZ and MDC - I have not played enough with them. They both have appeared inactive at times, and I don't know their styles. I think I played once with MDC where he was like a hound dog on a trail. He just would not let go of the hunt. I am not seeing that this game. KZ is using school as an excuse, but at least he is posting some. One of them could be the inactive wolf.
mnkgyl - Too me, he is unusually quiet. I think he likes games with riddles and clues more than just the social aspect. I said that I thought he was too quiet last round. Possibly a wolf.
The_Spider - Also not his usual self, even though he has posted his usual - more than the rest of us combined. I have never seen him let a challenge go. And yet, he said nothing about Cat's post last round. And he does this whether he is a wolf or not. So I don't know what to make of it. I will say that Harry usually pegs him when he is a wolf pretty quickly. Could be a wolf.
All that being said. I am leaning toward a vote for KZ or MDC this round, but mostly because I like playing with active players. I would love to know more about KZ's school. Is it secondary? College? What is he studying?
With no seer I am in no hurry to vote.
Now you have heard from more players. Meow!
Cat - His total usual self. Sometimes he tries hard to post, but then he gets shot and claims it is because he was too active and goes back to what he is doing this game. Could be a wolf. I usually start to suspect him.
Froggygg - More calm than usual, but not significantly. She usually figures it out in the end, though. If she doesn't, then I know she is a wolf. Weird about the bRIN post this round. Even bRIN knew her time was up. Could be a wolf.
Harry - Human. But I have said this about Harry before. He is one of two players (Deb is the other) that I don't read well. I can be the seer and divine him as a wolf, and still believe his stories.
Jayo - IDK. He has not been challenged this game. Could be a wolf.
KZ and MDC - I have not played enough with them. They both have appeared inactive at times, and I don't know their styles. I think I played once with MDC where he was like a hound dog on a trail. He just would not let go of the hunt. I am not seeing that this game. KZ is using school as an excuse, but at least he is posting some. One of them could be the inactive wolf.
mnkgyl - Too me, he is unusually quiet. I think he likes games with riddles and clues more than just the social aspect. I said that I thought he was too quiet last round. Possibly a wolf.
The_Spider - Also not his usual self, even though he has posted his usual - more than the rest of us combined. I have never seen him let a challenge go. And yet, he said nothing about Cat's post last round. And he does this whether he is a wolf or not. So I don't know what to make of it. I will say that Harry usually pegs him when he is a wolf pretty quickly. Could be a wolf.
All that being said. I am leaning toward a vote for KZ or MDC this round, but mostly because I like playing with active players. I would love to know more about KZ's school. Is it secondary? College? What is he studying?
With no seer I am in no hurry to vote.
Now you have heard from more players. Meow!
If spid is a wolf he deserves to win at this point sheesh
I am going to try to do some analysis on my own
Index for WW/WTB databases - https://ksteven.github.io/playground/ (Data refreshed: 2021-12-07)
I am going to try to do some analysis on my own
Index for WW/WTB databases - https://ksteven.github.io/playground/ (Data refreshed: 2021-12-07)
Checking in because I can
Carry on
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Carry on
This space is intentionally left blank.
I am the way, the light, the truth, no one comes to the wolves but through me
Whoever first comes out of hiding between KZ/Cat/MDC....well it will certainly benefit them in regards to my vote...
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Whoever first comes out of hiding between KZ/Cat/MDC....well it will certainly benefit them in regards to my vote...
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Mnky is looking increasingly likely to be a wolf
My analysis from last round was obviously built on relatively limited info
If Mnky IS a wolf then partner wise I'd look at Spid/Froggy possibly Scrub
Froggy I'd like to hear more from you if you can
Scrub I feel your list is a bit generic, not really looking to put solid markers down
Spid I've seen as quite analytical, pair analysis Deb list etc as both human and wolf so I wouldn't prioritise him for a bullet this round
Mnky it has to be for me, sorry I can't get into this more right now
The night eating this round will probably be almost as helpful as the identity of the person shot this round
LYLO next round if we miss again - no pressure
Dovie'andi se tovya sagain
My analysis from last round was obviously built on relatively limited info
If Mnky IS a wolf then partner wise I'd look at Spid/Froggy possibly Scrub
Froggy I'd like to hear more from you if you can
Scrub I feel your list is a bit generic, not really looking to put solid markers down
Spid I've seen as quite analytical, pair analysis Deb list etc as both human and wolf so I wouldn't prioritise him for a bullet this round
Mnky it has to be for me, sorry I can't get into this more right now
The night eating this round will probably be almost as helpful as the identity of the person shot this round
LYLO next round if we miss again - no pressure
Dovie'andi se tovya sagain
Ok, here is my list for what it is worth:
Cat: I always have a tough time figuring out Cat for some reason. Unsure here
HP: For some reason, I'm thinking he may be a possible wolf
Jayo: Another one who I find difficult to read
KZ: Reading through his posts, he could be a possible wolf
MDC: I feel he is a wolf which is why I voted for him last round.
Mnky: I find it strange that he voted for MDC almost immediately when round started. Then the comment about night timing out and why he thought it was due to MDC. Also his comment about a wolf not letting a night time out. I have played in games where a wolf has done just that in order to make someone else look guilty. Wolf
Scrub: Hard to call this one as well. He can be tricky when a wolf and has fooled me a few times when I thought he was definitely human. Possible wolf?
Spider: I would not be surprised to find that HP and Spider were on team wolf.
Frog: Human
Scrub, I completely forgot about the Brin issue of a known human being eaten. Believe me, that has happened to me a few times. I also made that post early in the am here, and had just woke up from watching TV and falling asleep during one of my favorite recordings.
I have also been in lots of games where the wolves do talk back and forth in a sort of "wolf dance" just to look human. And, I've been in lots of games with a wolf tossing a fellow wolf under the bus. I've been tossed a few times and it is not a fun thing to experience. This is why I have never, and never will, toss a fellow wolf under a bus. It just seems to me to be an unfair playing method.
So, with all that said, I feel strongly that MDC and mnk are both wolves. The third wolf, I am still pondering.
Voting for mnkgyl.
SMILE and people will wonder what you are up to!
Cat: I always have a tough time figuring out Cat for some reason. Unsure here
HP: For some reason, I'm thinking he may be a possible wolf
Jayo: Another one who I find difficult to read
KZ: Reading through his posts, he could be a possible wolf
MDC: I feel he is a wolf which is why I voted for him last round.
Mnky: I find it strange that he voted for MDC almost immediately when round started. Then the comment about night timing out and why he thought it was due to MDC. Also his comment about a wolf not letting a night time out. I have played in games where a wolf has done just that in order to make someone else look guilty. Wolf
Scrub: Hard to call this one as well. He can be tricky when a wolf and has fooled me a few times when I thought he was definitely human. Possible wolf?
Spider: I would not be surprised to find that HP and Spider were on team wolf.
Frog: Human
Scrub, I completely forgot about the Brin issue of a known human being eaten. Believe me, that has happened to me a few times. I also made that post early in the am here, and had just woke up from watching TV and falling asleep during one of my favorite recordings.
I have also been in lots of games where the wolves do talk back and forth in a sort of "wolf dance" just to look human. And, I've been in lots of games with a wolf tossing a fellow wolf under the bus. I've been tossed a few times and it is not a fun thing to experience. This is why I have never, and never will, toss a fellow wolf under a bus. It just seems to me to be an unfair playing method.
So, with all that said, I feel strongly that MDC and mnk are both wolves. The third wolf, I am still pondering.
Voting for mnkgyl.
SMILE and people will wonder what you are up to!
Thats two references to a game where Mnky let night time out as a wolf, do either (Frog or HP) have a link to this game?
froggygg voted for mnkgyl
Jayo voted for mnkgyl
mnkgyl voted for MDCTeasers
The_Spider voted for kzmonopoly
well I guess I can check the database
what Ive found (so far)
Mnk Timeout 1
Games with NO Mnk timeouts
Game 3171
Game 3157
Game 3136
Game 3132
Game 3252
Game 3251
Im not finding the specific game (though I do rememebr the 23:30 minute night ), perhaps the timeout ive listed was justified, but Im not seeing a long track record of night time outs, in fact mnky is a pretty reliable night voter......oh...i misread froggys comment as shes been in games where mnky himself caused a timeout....so this was all pretty much for naught....but I guess mnky shouldnt be implicated for the extended night at least.
---This message was edited on 2017-08-04 14:46:47---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
froggygg voted for mnkgyl
Jayo voted for mnkgyl
mnkgyl voted for MDCTeasers
The_Spider voted for kzmonopoly
well I guess I can check the database
what Ive found (so far)
Mnk Timeout 1
Games with NO Mnk timeouts
Game 3171
Game 3157
Game 3136
Game 3132
Game 3252
Game 3251
Im not finding the specific game (though I do rememebr the 23:30 minute night ), perhaps the timeout ive listed was justified, but Im not seeing a long track record of night time outs, in fact mnky is a pretty reliable night voter......oh...i misread froggys comment as shes been in games where mnky himself caused a timeout....so this was all pretty much for naught....but I guess mnky shouldnt be implicated for the extended night at least.
---This message was edited on 2017-08-04 14:46:47---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Scrub, your comment about school jumped out. I don't have school, it's summer. I do have summer prep, but that's only in the morning. I think it's just when I check in compared to when the rounds start. But, every single round, I have got on really late.
Oh, I said I had school in the morning. I meant prep. and .... I'm in middle school....
Mnk seems really trigger happy. Jumped right into voting mdc, and did not say anything else.
bRIN eating was expected, she was human in most of our books.
If I had to list the wolves right now, it would be mnk, mdc, and scrub or cat.
I'm pretty sure froggy's human. Spider is probably human. Iffy on scrub and cat, but cat barely said anyhing this round, and he was quiet last round too.
Did night time out last round? And is that why people are voting mdc?
No thoughts on Harry really as to suspicions. I think he's a human.
I think my vote will be mnk or cat.
Edit: Spider posted as I was typing this, and that's confirmation that night timed out. Holding off on voting for now until a few more people talk.
---This message was edited on 2017-08-04 14:29:39---
Ooooooh! Nice!
Oh, I said I had school in the morning. I meant prep. and .... I'm in middle school....
Mnk seems really trigger happy. Jumped right into voting mdc, and did not say anything else.
bRIN eating was expected, she was human in most of our books.
If I had to list the wolves right now, it would be mnk, mdc, and scrub or cat.
I'm pretty sure froggy's human. Spider is probably human. Iffy on scrub and cat, but cat barely said anyhing this round, and he was quiet last round too.
Did night time out last round? And is that why people are voting mdc?
No thoughts on Harry really as to suspicions. I think he's a human.
I think my vote will be mnk or cat.
Edit: Spider posted as I was typing this, and that's confirmation that night timed out. Holding off on voting for now until a few more people talk.
---This message was edited on 2017-08-04 14:29:39---
Ooooooh! Nice!
Need to answer to several people, so will avoid the pain of quoting stuff.
Harry, in the game you are talking about, none of the time outs was intentional, all were activity based. And one night was 23:29 hours long. It did not time out.
Spid, how would you feel about playing after 11 months and being a wolf 3 times in a row (which has a probability of just 0.8%)
You got me right, scrub, I prefer games with riddles and clues because I am not good at reading people.
That all said, I am pretty sure that none of the people playing this game would intentionally time out nights. Everyone had a chance to vote during the night but may be not MDC. Don't ask me how I know that if you don't want to be mad at me
That is why I am pretty sure that MDC is a wolf. As for his partners, I have no idea about them as of now.
Every problem can be solved with a trick but finding that trick itself needs another trick.
Harry, in the game you are talking about, none of the time outs was intentional, all were activity based. And one night was 23:29 hours long. It did not time out.
Spid, how would you feel about playing after 11 months and being a wolf 3 times in a row (which has a probability of just 0.8%)
You got me right, scrub, I prefer games with riddles and clues because I am not good at reading people.
That all said, I am pretty sure that none of the people playing this game would intentionally time out nights. Everyone had a chance to vote during the night but may be not MDC. Don't ask me how I know that if you don't want to be mad at me
That is why I am pretty sure that MDC is a wolf. As for his partners, I have no idea about them as of now.
Every problem can be solved with a trick but finding that trick itself needs another trick.
Im researching your games in regards to timeouts so will respond (if needed later to this in general) but sounds like you just dropped the gamblers fallacy on me (usual for this site) Youve already been a wolf twice in a row, that wont change, so your odds this game are 20%, no more no less.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Think I'll keep my vote from last round and tie the vote up..
The early bird gets the worm,but the second rat gets the cheese..
The early bird gets the worm,but the second rat gets the cheese..
In regards to my last post, I hadn't read the posts after deb check in before posting. Will respond to further posts in few minutes.
Every problem can be solved with a trick but finding that trick itself needs another trick.
Every problem can be solved with a trick but finding that trick itself needs another trick.
Im not against an MDC vote, but want to maintain the tie for a least a bit ( Cat might need to be held to account with vote pressure though as well )
---This message was edited on 2017-08-04 14:59:26---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
---This message was edited on 2017-08-04 14:59:26---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
catmandon wrote:
That's it?????? You do know that if we miss now, next round is a must kill?
Jayo: Yes, my list is a little generic. I think of this game as a dance, as we all dance around each other and the truth of our identities. And it unfolds as our identities are revealed. Players votes also reveal a lot to me, but they have to be in combination with identities known. The only identity we have is Sophie. I believe her dance with Harry as sincere (between two humans) - which is why he is the only player I feel reasonably confident about. Or at least I am willing to make my decisions based on the assumption he is human regardless of his true identity.
Think I'll keep my vote from last round and tie the vote up..
That's it?????? You do know that if we miss now, next round is a must kill?
Jayo: Yes, my list is a little generic. I think of this game as a dance, as we all dance around each other and the truth of our identities. And it unfolds as our identities are revealed. Players votes also reveal a lot to me, but they have to be in combination with identities known. The only identity we have is Sophie. I believe her dance with Harry as sincere (between two humans) - which is why he is the only player I feel reasonably confident about. Or at least I am willing to make my decisions based on the assumption he is human regardless of his true identity.
The game I referred to in my previous post was the bRIN's game of few days ago, i.e. 3251.
Spid, I was THREE times wolves in a row. If I were a wolf this game, it would have been my fourth wolf in a row (0.16% probability) but I can assure you that Braingle gave me a break from being wolf.
As for your edit to your research about me post, I have even voted just into the night 1 or 2 times
I guess spid's analysis should answer froggyg's post but I would like to make this fair point that I may bus MDC over the frustration of him being inactive but even that won't happen because of how patient I can be.
Every problem can be solved with a trick but finding that trick itself needs another trick.
Spid, I was THREE times wolves in a row. If I were a wolf this game, it would have been my fourth wolf in a row (0.16% probability) but I can assure you that Braingle gave me a break from being wolf.
As for your edit to your research about me post, I have even voted just into the night 1 or 2 times
I guess spid's analysis should answer froggyg's post but I would like to make this fair point that I may bus MDC over the frustration of him being inactive but even that won't happen because of how patient I can be.
Every problem can be solved with a trick but finding that trick itself needs another trick.
This is suspicion neutral, Im not using it against you (for better or worse) but this demonstrates a poor understanding of statistics. Your PAST streak of wolf games has NO BEARING on your odds this game. The odds of being a wolf 3 games in a row is low, but it has already happened, this is a new game, the computer has no memory (this metaphor works better with a coin ) it doesnt change its coding or have a "give him a break" subroutine (unless you can supply the coding in which I can dig in and look for it )
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I never said that my 3 wolves in a row has anything to do with this game. I asked your comments on what had happened. It was you who misunderstood it and connected it to this game.
I am standing up rightfully to my MDC vote. Spid's analysis proves by induction (don't take this phrase seriously) that I didn't cause an intentional time out and you need to believe my words when I say that I won't bus MDC straight away for his inactivity. I am not able to clear anyone else right now.
Every problem can be solved with a trick but finding that trick itself needs another trick.
I am standing up rightfully to my MDC vote. Spid's analysis proves by induction (don't take this phrase seriously) that I didn't cause an intentional time out and you need to believe my words when I say that I won't bus MDC straight away for his inactivity. I am not able to clear anyone else right now.
Every problem can be solved with a trick but finding that trick itself needs another trick.
I am putting a second vote on MDC. It's not locked, but I think his reveal will help sort through the mess.
Did you guys know that Cat had a 1/225 chance of being the seer two games in a row? (Please don't respond, the question is rhetorical).
Did you guys know that Cat had a 1/225 chance of being the seer two games in a row? (Please don't respond, the question is rhetorical).
I'm worried this is either an occums razor situation, and we are trying to be over cute and mdc is obviously a wolf, also starting to seem like the wolves are among those not even in discussion (jayo harry scrub) wed be pretty hopeless if that was the case regardless of how this round played out
Will be out a little while, but will be back to hopefully secure something decisive
Can people indicate who they would potentially be willing to vote this round, because not going to explore a (for instance jayo case) if it's no going anywhere, I'm at even split between mdc kz and cat still if it remains as it stands now
---This message was edited on 2017-08-04 15:56:45---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Will be out a little while, but will be back to hopefully secure something decisive
Can people indicate who they would potentially be willing to vote this round, because not going to explore a (for instance jayo case) if it's no going anywhere, I'm at even split between mdc kz and cat still if it remains as it stands now
---This message was edited on 2017-08-04 15:56:45---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I think mnk usually likes to play more in the shadows as a wolf imo. Ah ok the game I was thinking about regarding timing night out was a couple games back, but it was Stew who caused that one.
I am not sure killing MDC would be very useful at this point, but he is killing the game
I am going to vote for MDC but may change later
---This message was edited on 2017-08-04 15:57:07---
Index for WW/WTB databases - https://ksteven.github.io/playground/ (Data refreshed: 2021-12-07)
I am not sure killing MDC would be very useful at this point, but he is killing the game
I am going to vote for MDC but may change later
---This message was edited on 2017-08-04 15:57:07---
Index for WW/WTB databases - https://ksteven.github.io/playground/ (Data refreshed: 2021-12-07)
HarryPutter wrote:
Every problem can be solved with a trick but finding that trick itself needs another trick.
I am not sure killing MDC would be very useful at this point, but he is killing the game
That statement only makes sense if you believe that he is an inactive human. Please explicitly state so to avoid any confusion.
Every problem can be solved with a trick but finding that trick itself needs another trick.
catmandon voted for kzmonopoly
froggygg voted for mnkgyl
HarryPutter voted for MDCTeasers
Jayo voted for mnkgyl
kzmonopoly voted for mnkgyl
mnkgyl voted for MDCTeasers
scrub88 voted for MDCTeasers
The_Spider voted for kzmonopoly
I'm voting mnk. I'm not really sure about the MDC vote. MDC might or might not be a human. I think mnk is more suspicious. I am open to a vote change, though.
Ooooooh! Nice!
froggygg voted for mnkgyl
HarryPutter voted for MDCTeasers
Jayo voted for mnkgyl
kzmonopoly voted for mnkgyl
mnkgyl voted for MDCTeasers
scrub88 voted for MDCTeasers
The_Spider voted for kzmonopoly
I'm voting mnk. I'm not really sure about the MDC vote. MDC might or might not be a human. I think mnk is more suspicious. I am open to a vote change, though.
Ooooooh! Nice!
Errrrrr I'm grabbing dinner but will be back
This is getting odd, monkey, and maybe harry are the only ones reacting to mdc properly, this feels like some kind of 'sting'
Will explain later, if can't get s kz majority tempted to move to jayo
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
This is getting odd, monkey, and maybe harry are the only ones reacting to mdc properly, this feels like some kind of 'sting'
Will explain later, if can't get s kz majority tempted to move to jayo
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Ok here's what I'm thinking....
I feel like MDC is being left out as chump bait by the wolves. Call it a variant of the persistent defender tactic, in a way. If MDC IS a wolf, the wolves would certainly be bussing him at this juncture, there's far far too much risk in protecting him at this stage, the rise of the Monkey countermajority seems very forced and innapropriate, and since its unlikely again, that wolves would protect MDC, it seems like a very "tactical" move. At this stage of the game the wolves win by getting a human shot here and implicating just one other human in front of them in the 'suspects lineup'.
There's also no real reason to bus Monkey at this stage (why not just make the easy move and shoot MDC).....both MDC/Monkey being wolves is the only real sticking point about all his . Monkey is very likely human.....
I guess Im just trying to make sense of this.... again the voting lining up is highly "tactical" and not based on a coherent reading of the game up to this point. I don't mean that to be offensive, I just mean Im not buying he vote distribution on Monkey/MDC.
There is still value in voting MDC and I might just end up doing it to at least resolve the situation. Harry, what are your feelings on Jayo at this point??
Im between doing something lazy/easy and voting MDC, and something reckless and voting Jayo
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I feel like MDC is being left out as chump bait by the wolves. Call it a variant of the persistent defender tactic, in a way. If MDC IS a wolf, the wolves would certainly be bussing him at this juncture, there's far far too much risk in protecting him at this stage, the rise of the Monkey countermajority seems very forced and innapropriate, and since its unlikely again, that wolves would protect MDC, it seems like a very "tactical" move. At this stage of the game the wolves win by getting a human shot here and implicating just one other human in front of them in the 'suspects lineup'.
There's also no real reason to bus Monkey at this stage (why not just make the easy move and shoot MDC).....both MDC/Monkey being wolves is the only real sticking point about all his . Monkey is very likely human.....
I guess Im just trying to make sense of this.... again the voting lining up is highly "tactical" and not based on a coherent reading of the game up to this point. I don't mean that to be offensive, I just mean Im not buying he vote distribution on Monkey/MDC.
There is still value in voting MDC and I might just end up doing it to at least resolve the situation. Harry, what are your feelings on Jayo at this point??
Im between doing something lazy/easy and voting MDC, and something reckless and voting Jayo
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Going with a Jayo vote but will switch back if nothing happens
wait MDC just voted
---This message was edited on 2017-08-04 19:58:01---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
wait MDC just voted
---This message was edited on 2017-08-04 19:58:01---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Oh god oh god oh god. I was grounded. Please don't ask why as it was just embarrassing. Anyway, I'm voting for mnk because even though I have not been the most active in this game I am still a human and may be able to tip the scales towards the humans.
Edit: I accidentally voted kz before when I meant mnk.
---This message was edited on 2017-08-04 20:37:53---
fear my cuteness.
Edit: I accidentally voted kz before when I meant mnk.
---This message was edited on 2017-08-04 20:37:53---
fear my cuteness.
catmandon voted for kzmonopoly
froggygg voted for mnkgyl
HarryPutter voted for MDCTeasers
Jayo voted for mnkgyl
kzmonopoly voted for mnkgyl
MDCTeasers voted for mnkgyl
mnkgyl voted for MDCTeasers
scrub88 voted for MDCTeasers
The_Spider voted for Jayo
Time is dwindling, I will switch to either MDC or Monkey (most likely MDC) if nothing changes....ANY TAKERS ON A JAYO VOTE????
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
froggygg voted for mnkgyl
HarryPutter voted for MDCTeasers
Jayo voted for mnkgyl
kzmonopoly voted for mnkgyl
MDCTeasers voted for mnkgyl
mnkgyl voted for MDCTeasers
scrub88 voted for MDCTeasers
The_Spider voted for Jayo
Time is dwindling, I will switch to either MDC or Monkey (most likely MDC) if nothing changes....ANY TAKERS ON A JAYO VOTE????
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
okie dokie...gotta bounce....will tie up the votes, ..MIGHT check in before time is up but unlikely....Feel like Monkey is better bet for human than MDC so let's see how it goes (next round could be must lynch so be sure to be careful)
catmandon voted for kzmonopoly
froggygg voted for mnkgyl
HarryPutter voted for MDCTeasers
Jayo voted for mnkgyl
kzmonopoly voted for mnkgyl
MDCTeasers voted for mnkgyl
mnkgyl voted for MDCTeasers
scrub88 voted for MDCTeasers
The_Spider voted for MDCTeasers
---This message was edited on 2017-08-04 21:07:33---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
catmandon voted for kzmonopoly
froggygg voted for mnkgyl
HarryPutter voted for MDCTeasers
Jayo voted for mnkgyl
kzmonopoly voted for mnkgyl
MDCTeasers voted for mnkgyl
mnkgyl voted for MDCTeasers
scrub88 voted for MDCTeasers
The_Spider voted for MDCTeasers
---This message was edited on 2017-08-04 21:07:33---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Checking in again
Pretty good post turnout
Spent the last couple of hours at the animal hospital
We thought bandit ate a battery (he was in a cage and he got out, how?? Not sure but I think he has an accomplice) took x-rays, no battery so hubby had to go get grace to get her x rayed. No battery in her either. WE CANT FIND THE BATTERY!!! What was left of the remote was on the living room floor. My daughter even came over while we were at the vet hospital and looked for the missing battery. She didn't find it either. Where can it be????
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Pretty good post turnout
Spent the last couple of hours at the animal hospital
We thought bandit ate a battery (he was in a cage and he got out, how?? Not sure but I think he has an accomplice) took x-rays, no battery so hubby had to go get grace to get her x rayed. No battery in her either. WE CANT FIND THE BATTERY!!! What was left of the remote was on the living room floor. My daughter even came over while we were at the vet hospital and looked for the missing battery. She didn't find it either. Where can it be????
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Finally you have a decent picture to look at, dan
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I JUST LOVE SEEING TIES!!!
NO WAY WILL I CHANGE MY VOTE!!!
The early bird gets the worm,but the second rat gets the cheese..
NO WAY WILL I CHANGE MY VOTE!!!
The early bird gets the worm,but the second rat gets the cheese..
MDCTeasers wrote:
Made me think about changing my vote..
But no,if one is human and one is wolf???
The early bird gets the worm,but the second rat gets the cheese..
Oh god oh god oh god. I was grounded. Please don't ask why as it was just embarrassing. Anyway, I'm voting for mnk because even though I have not been the most active in this game I am still a human and may be able to tip the scales towards the humans.
Edit: I accidentally voted kz before when I meant mnk.
Edit: I accidentally voted kz before when I meant mnk.
Made me think about changing my vote..
But no,if one is human and one is wolf???
The early bird gets the worm,but the second rat gets the cheese..
Humans do ya'll need a pep talk??
Get it together and talk this out
All 3 wolves live
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Get it together and talk this out
All 3 wolves live
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