Who's The Boss
Game #3209: Murder She Wrote 46
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This game finished in 4 rounds.
Welcome to Round 2!!
Take all sorrow out of life and you take away all richness, and depth, and tenderness. The capacity of sorrow belongs to our grandeur. It is the furnace that melts hearts together in love.
Take all sorrow out of life and you take away all richness, and depth, and tenderness. The capacity of sorrow belongs to our grandeur. It is the furnace that melts hearts together in love.
Well, talan had a stated vote for bradon, so for now she's off my list.
Will lock in a safety vote for oddrey, but not for any reason at this point.
Will lock in a safety vote for oddrey, but not for any reason at this point.
Ok! well, talanpoe claimed a vote for Bradon, so Bradon is probably cleared. But she could have been the rat, because it only takes 2 votes on the boss to get the rat on the firing list (2 out of 8 voters = 25%).
Assuming talanpoe was fired for being a lemming not the rat, Shriya cannot have been the boss or rat, as she was only other to claim a vote on bradon.
there were three mini majorities last round: on whoviandeb, shriya, and bradon. since shriya and bradon are both probably not the murderer, I am voting for whoviandeb. She is by far the most statistically likely choice. (This is a version of the Monty Hall Problem). If we figure that Shriya and Bradon are 100% cleared (which is wrong, but I don't know how to calculate the odds talanpoe was fired as a rat vs lemming), then that would mean there is a 30% chance whoviandeb is the boss, and 14% chance each of the remaining 5 (Dr. Hoo, froggy, kzmonopoly, waylander, and myself). When i factor in that I know I am not the boss that becomes 17.5% for the other 4, but that is still way less than 30%.
Someone please correct me if I am wrong about anything, but if I am not mistaken whoviandeb is, statistically speaking, by far the best choice for who to vote for this round.
I realize anyone who was in the last game with me has heard this all before when I tried to get everyone to vote for waylander. I didn't convince anyone then (and waylander was innocent in the end), but because there were three mini-majorities and 2 out of 3 were (likely) cleared, the probability is WAY higher this time around.
And here is one more unrelated reason to vote for whovian: When Dr Hoo stated he wanted to get a majority vote going on whovian last round, that prompted kz to pipe in with the very strange suggestion that we should instead go for a majority on Jayo because he was likely to be a mandatory fire. It does no good to clear someone who is going to be fired, so I really don't know what to make of that. It may have just been a brain fart on kz's part, but also maybe a move by rat kz to protect boss whovian?
---This message was edited on 2017-03-14 00:17:08---
Assuming talanpoe was fired for being a lemming not the rat, Shriya cannot have been the boss or rat, as she was only other to claim a vote on bradon.
there were three mini majorities last round: on whoviandeb, shriya, and bradon. since shriya and bradon are both probably not the murderer, I am voting for whoviandeb. She is by far the most statistically likely choice. (This is a version of the Monty Hall Problem). If we figure that Shriya and Bradon are 100% cleared (which is wrong, but I don't know how to calculate the odds talanpoe was fired as a rat vs lemming), then that would mean there is a 30% chance whoviandeb is the boss, and 14% chance each of the remaining 5 (Dr. Hoo, froggy, kzmonopoly, waylander, and myself). When i factor in that I know I am not the boss that becomes 17.5% for the other 4, but that is still way less than 30%.
Someone please correct me if I am wrong about anything, but if I am not mistaken whoviandeb is, statistically speaking, by far the best choice for who to vote for this round.
I realize anyone who was in the last game with me has heard this all before when I tried to get everyone to vote for waylander. I didn't convince anyone then (and waylander was innocent in the end), but because there were three mini-majorities and 2 out of 3 were (likely) cleared, the probability is WAY higher this time around.
And here is one more unrelated reason to vote for whovian: When Dr Hoo stated he wanted to get a majority vote going on whovian last round, that prompted kz to pipe in with the very strange suggestion that we should instead go for a majority on Jayo because he was likely to be a mandatory fire. It does no good to clear someone who is going to be fired, so I really don't know what to make of that. It may have just been a brain fart on kz's part, but also maybe a move by rat kz to protect boss whovian?
---This message was edited on 2017-03-14 00:17:08---
Voting oddrey for writing a post that requires me to put my thinking cap on. Might change if I have time to do analyse later.
Holy Cow oddrey, that's a lot of thought way more than I've ever given in this game. After all this time, I still don't fully understand all the ifs, ands or buts to reason it out. For all I know you could be totally wrong in your reasoning, or you could be totally right.
My instincts tell me you probably are correct about kz being the rat.Even I knew voting a probable mandatory was not the thing to do. We are trying to get the murderer or clear someone, not eliminate someone who would most likely be killed by the murderer by the rules of the game.
So, I'm going to go with your 30% odds and vote whoviandeb.
Edit: Vote locked in.
---This message was edited on 2017-03-14 09:31:01---
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
My instincts tell me you probably are correct about kz being the rat.Even I knew voting a probable mandatory was not the thing to do. We are trying to get the murderer or clear someone, not eliminate someone who would most likely be killed by the murderer by the rules of the game.
So, I'm going to go with your 30% odds and vote whoviandeb.
Edit: Vote locked in.
---This message was edited on 2017-03-14 09:31:01---
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
It wasn't a brain fart. :| I meant that since Jayo was going to be fired, the majorities are safer, since less people will be fired. I always get misunderstood in every game
I'll just lock in a safety vote on Shriya right now, I'll listen to more thoughts, but I'm probably going to clear Whov in the end.
Ooooooh! Nice!
I'll just lock in a safety vote on Shriya right now, I'll listen to more thoughts, but I'm probably going to clear Whov in the end.
Ooooooh! Nice!
Voting for Oddrey
Please stop with the Monty Hall analogies, pretty please
I never make mitsakes
Please stop with the Monty Hall analogies, pretty please
I never make mitsakes
kzmonopoly wrote:
Oh, I see what you meant now! Apologies for the confusion.
Honestly so confused as to why the statistical approach seems to do nothing more than draw suspition my way. But at least this is WTB not werewolf so those votes will clear me not kill me.
Sorry if it's annoying. But to me it seems like a valid approach. Especially early in the game when there is not much else to go on.
---This message was edited on 2017-03-14 15:16:06---
It wasn't a brain fart. :| I meant that since Jayo was going to be fired, the majorities are safer, since less people will be fired. I always get misunderstood in every game
I'll just lock in a safety vote on Shriya right now, I'll listen to more thoughts, but I'm probably going to clear Whov in the end.
I'll just lock in a safety vote on Shriya right now, I'll listen to more thoughts, but I'm probably going to clear Whov in the end.
Oh, I see what you meant now! Apologies for the confusion.
Honestly so confused as to why the statistical approach seems to do nothing more than draw suspition my way. But at least this is WTB not werewolf so those votes will clear me not kill me.
Sorry if it's annoying. But to me it seems like a valid approach. Especially early in the game when there is not much else to go on.
---This message was edited on 2017-03-14 15:16:06---
Some lengthy posts here with lots of good points. However, I think oddrey is trying too hard to get us to vote for Who. That said, Who could very well be the Boss. For some reason, I think oddrey is the Rat trying to direct us away from the real Boss.
The Boss answer regarding dogs and cats definitely points to Bobbi since she lists her preference for dogs on her home page. But, that is a bit too obvious. Therefore, I'm voting for the other person that oddrey stated is potentially cleared - Shriya.
SMILE and people will wonder what you are up to!
The Boss answer regarding dogs and cats definitely points to Bobbi since she lists her preference for dogs on her home page. But, that is a bit too obvious. Therefore, I'm voting for the other person that oddrey stated is potentially cleared - Shriya.
SMILE and people will wonder what you are up to!
Well, Shriya has never watched Jeopardy, so I'm not sure about that vote.
I still feel like its whoviandeb, froggy, or Bobbi.
I don't think it's oddrey, although she might be the rat. However, she is very helpful.
I'm not sure about DrHoo, Shriya, and Waylander.
Oddrey: I think that your statistical analysis is 'suspicious' because it takes too much thought. I had to read it over a few times. But I think it could be a valid strategy, although probability might not always work.
Ooooooh! Nice!
I still feel like its whoviandeb, froggy, or Bobbi.
I don't think it's oddrey, although she might be the rat. However, she is very helpful.
I'm not sure about DrHoo, Shriya, and Waylander.
Oddrey: I think that your statistical analysis is 'suspicious' because it takes too much thought. I had to read it over a few times. But I think it could be a valid strategy, although probability might not always work.
Ooooooh! Nice!
Just a reminder that if shriya is the boss of at least one of these two has to be true: talanpoe was the rat and fired because there were two votes on Shriya, OR somebody did not report their vote accurately. I doubt the votes were reported inaccurately. I don't know how likely it is that talanpoe was the rat not a lemming, but it is definitely possible. But unless you think someone misreported their vote, voting shriya because you think I am the rat is not a valid reason.
---This message was edited on 2017-03-14 15:24:12---
---This message was edited on 2017-03-14 15:24:12---
We actually have a majority on Shriya right now, so I'll move my vote to oddrey. I'll check back later.
Ooooooh! Nice!
Ooooooh! Nice!
I've seen people lie about their votes before, but as that typically only aids the boss, its not a common practice.
If there's a drive to clear me, I'll stick with my vote from last round: kz
It's a disease, not a punch line
If there's a drive to clear me, I'll stick with my vote from last round: kz
It's a disease, not a punch line
Voting List
bradon182001 - whoviandeb
DrHoo -oddrey
froggygg - Shriya
kzmonopoly - oddrey
oddrey - ??
Shriya - oddrey
Waylander- oddrey
whoviandeb - kzmonopoly
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
bradon182001 - whoviandeb
DrHoo -oddrey
froggygg - Shriya
kzmonopoly - oddrey
oddrey - ??
Shriya - oddrey
Waylander- oddrey
whoviandeb - kzmonopoly
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
I forgot there was a majority on oddrey too. Guess I'll stay in it to clear oddrey.
Ooooooh! Nice!
Ooooooh! Nice!
Well at least there is potential for a good clear. Sticking with it.
kzmonopoly wrote:
Well, to be fair, you kinda were the rat last game...
@Oddrey -- Lol I honestly didn't suspect you of anything when casting the vote. Just thought it'd be comical to reply to a detailed analysis with a suspicion vote. (I am not at my sharpest in the morning.) Changing to froggyg because her vote for me seems on weak ground.
Fwiw, I really am neither the boss, nor the rat.
---This message was edited on 2017-03-14 20:36:30---
I always get misunderstood in every game
Well, to be fair, you kinda were the rat last game...
@Oddrey -- Lol I honestly didn't suspect you of anything when casting the vote. Just thought it'd be comical to reply to a detailed analysis with a suspicion vote. (I am not at my sharpest in the morning.) Changing to froggyg because her vote for me seems on weak ground.
Fwiw, I really am neither the boss, nor the rat.
---This message was edited on 2017-03-14 20:36:30---
Er randomly came across this thread: null
I know, what arethe odds but I was bored and browsing/snooping into the threads.
Who is definitely not the boss. She says she like cats.
I know, what arethe odds but I was bored and browsing/snooping into the threads.
Who is definitely not the boss. She says she like cats.
Well that is convincing evidence if I've ever seen it, Shriya. The stumbling into it story dies strike me as a little suspicious, but it seems unlikely whoviandeb would have lied or changed her opinion on dogs v cats since then. I'll change my vote to......froggy
Should also point out the irony of it being kz who asked her that
Kz, the guy, who in his own interview, admitted to liking dogs over cats because they are cuter*
*until dogs grow up he said.
Not sure if cuter means friendlier as the boss has said they are. Since a lot of people can prefer dogs over cats, will leave vote as is for now on Froggy.
Kz, the guy, who in his own interview, admitted to liking dogs over cats because they are cuter*
*until dogs grow up he said.
Not sure if cuter means friendlier as the boss has said they are. Since a lot of people can prefer dogs over cats, will leave vote as is for now on Froggy.
Voting list with 26 minutes left in round.
bradon182001 - whoviandeb
DrHoo - oddrey
froggygg- Shriya
kzmonopoly - oddrey
oddrey - froggy
Shriya - froggy
Waylander -oddrey
whoviandeb - kzmonopoly
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
bradon182001 - whoviandeb
DrHoo - oddrey
froggygg- Shriya
kzmonopoly - oddrey
oddrey - froggy
Shriya - froggy
Waylander -oddrey
whoviandeb - kzmonopoly
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
Well, the change from the first list to the second is disheartening. In games where there is no clear majority, the boss has the edge.
Maybe we can gleam something from which ones get fired - if me, kz, or way, then oddrey will be cleared. If oddrey or froggy, then the rat or the boss is in the mix.
Maybe we can gleam something from which ones get fired - if me, kz, or way, then oddrey will be cleared. If oddrey or froggy, then the rat or the boss is in the mix.
Just checking in and see we're still in a holding pattern.
It's a disease, not a punch line
It's a disease, not a punch line
DrHoo wrote:
Not necessarily, assuming a vote is a rat/accident
Well, the change from the first list to the second is disheartening. In games where there is no clear majority, the boss has the edge.
Maybe we can gleam something from which ones get fired - if me, kz, or way, then oddrey will be cleared. If oddrey or froggy, then the rat or the boss is in the mix.
Maybe we can gleam something from which ones get fired - if me, kz, or way, then oddrey will be cleared. If oddrey or froggy, then the rat or the boss is in the mix.
Not necessarily, assuming a vote is a rat/accident
Well, I'm browsing the forums, and on this or that, Shriya chose dogs over cats, so maybe that's a lead?
Ooooooh! Nice!
Ooooooh! Nice!
Can't be, my favorite TV is Outlander, followed by MASH, followed by Sherlock
Follow Braingle!