Brain Teasers
A Mariner's Chance
Probability
Probability puzzles require you to weigh all the possibilities and pick the most likely outcome.Probability
An old wartime story describes a sailor who, during a pitched battle, put his head through the hole made in the side of his ship by an enemy shell. His theory was that the odds of another shell landing in exactly the same spot should be extremely low.
Was his reasoning correct?
Was his reasoning correct?
Answer
No. The chance of an unlikely event happening twice is fairly low, but the sailor's safety can't be calculated just by looking at the random nature of another shot landing in that hole. First, the destination of a shell is not entirely random--the guns are being aimed, and gunners who succeed with one shot may try again in the same direction. Second, each time a random phenomenon occurs, the probability of the same thing happening again is exactly the same. So, even if the guns weren't being aimed, the spot is just as likely to be hit as any other.Hide Answer Show Answer
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Comments
nobody say anything about plagiarism...
what does plagiarism mean? i love ponys
Why do you always say on ever comment you make that you love ponies?
Gee. Could it be because she loves ponies? I liked the puzzle. Good explanation!
ponies are cool. thanks guys. hey pretty_ponyz i have a question. why are they so short?
Its very good but easy.
(its very fun)
(its very fun)
Its very good but easy.
(its very fun)
(its very fun)
May 28, 2004
There are two issues with this solution, 1. If these ships were not moving and they were close together, it would be foolish because the aim would likely be unchanged. 2.If the ship were under normal conditions - on waves and miles away from each other, then that would likely be the best place to look out! Realisticly, the sailor should be on the other side of the ship jumping into a life boat!!
This is such a stupid problem that is totaly ambiguous in its definition and has no real answer. Don't bother posting any more rubbish like this please
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