The Werewolf Game
Game #3169: THE RESISTANCE (2/1)
This private game is moderated by HarryPutter. Please read the rules and contact the moderator with any questions or concerns about this game.
This game finished in 8 rounds.
Thanks, Dawn
The Rebels only have reason for celebration this round because:
1) For the second round in a row, the mission was...a SUCCESS
2) MDC (a spy) was shot!
3) The Commander marches on and is just one successful mission away from forming his/her own hideout
Team leaders for this round have been notified. Teams will be posted at 24hrs left. Good luck Stop the govt...
Team Possibilities
Team 1
- LEADER: Tomatoes
- The_Spider
- windsor_babe
- absy
Team 2
- LEADER: windsor_babe
- Zxcv
- Jessey
- Rene
VOTE
---This message was edited on 2015-10-05 22:03:43---
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The Rebels only have reason for celebration this round because:
1) For the second round in a row, the mission was...a SUCCESS
2) MDC (a spy) was shot!
3) The Commander marches on and is just one successful mission away from forming his/her own hideout
Team leaders for this round have been notified. Teams will be posted at 24hrs left. Good luck Stop the govt...
Team Possibilities
Team 1
- LEADER: Tomatoes
- The_Spider
- windsor_babe
- absy
Team 2
- LEADER: windsor_babe
- Zxcv
- Jessey
- Rene
VOTE
---This message was edited on 2015-10-05 22:03:43---
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Glad to know we shot a spy. Will retread last round and vote from there.
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Well, that makes two games in a row for MDC as a wolf. I completely trust Spider now.
SPV for now.
It's a disease, not a punch line
SPV for now.
It's a disease, not a punch line
i'm at school so just have a few min, just gonna spv someone, have mentormeeting tonight so probably wont be around for the next like 10 hours
It's when you draw it you realize what it really looks like
It's when you draw it you realize what it really looks like
Airport day, be on later, spv
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I will SPV as well ... nothing much to go on just yet IMO. Though since Spider was right about MDC, Jess might need a looking into. Should we also take into account MDC's votes for original teams? He most likely would have voted for a wolfy team, don't you think?
EDIT:
Team 2
- Jayo
- Evita
- Tomatoes
- dawnrising
- The_Spider
That's the only team he approved ... interesting. Shall we assume at least 1 of these members could be a furry, unwanted saboteur??
TEAM 1
- LEADER: whoviandeb
- Jayo
- Evita
- MDCTeasers
Last round, though he could have approved only for HIMSELF, the matching names in both rounds teams are Evi and Jayo ... just a thought.
Also, Tom has been relatively inactive and confused as he stated in a previous post. Night rounds have been going pretty much full time haven't they? Maybe worth looking into?
I realize I just accused like almost half of the remaining people -- just trying to view all options here.
---This message was edited on 2015-10-05 05:07:07---
EDIT:
Team 2
- Jayo
- Evita
- Tomatoes
- dawnrising
- The_Spider
That's the only team he approved ... interesting. Shall we assume at least 1 of these members could be a furry, unwanted saboteur??
TEAM 1
- LEADER: whoviandeb
- Jayo
- Evita
- MDCTeasers
Last round, though he could have approved only for HIMSELF, the matching names in both rounds teams are Evi and Jayo ... just a thought.
Also, Tom has been relatively inactive and confused as he stated in a previous post. Night rounds have been going pretty much full time haven't they? Maybe worth looking into?
I realize I just accused like almost half of the remaining people -- just trying to view all options here.
---This message was edited on 2015-10-05 05:07:07---
As much as I enjoy being called right, I had no real suspicions of mdc, I just played a strategy that happened to hit a wolf, which was a fortunate break
Will make heads or tails of the eating later....under certain conditions we are near autowin, but I will do math check later
I agree absy, mdc would have likely voted for a team with a wolf, it makes little sense not to....but I'll have to recheck
---This message was edited on 2015-10-05 08:00:46---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Will make heads or tails of the eating later....under certain conditions we are near autowin, but I will do math check later
I agree absy, mdc would have likely voted for a team with a wolf, it makes little sense not to....but I'll have to recheck
---This message was edited on 2015-10-05 08:00:46---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
The_Spider wrote:
But if 2 humans picked the teams, he would be indifferent if only humans were selected
For instance - If I was a wolf, I would not want to select so many players from the same as team last time - it would have been easy for me to sabotage the mission if I selected 3 additional, previously unselected human players, leaving them all open to suspicion whilst preventing momentum towards a wolf clue and the Seer getting a TB
But I gambled on the success of the first mission being genuine, and we are now 2/2
If Seer has a wolf, they should consider coming out I think
Dovie'andi se tovya sagain
I agree absy, mdc would have likely voted for a team with a wolf, it makes little sense not to....but I'll have to recheck
But if 2 humans picked the teams, he would be indifferent if only humans were selected
For instance - If I was a wolf, I would not want to select so many players from the same as team last time - it would have been easy for me to sabotage the mission if I selected 3 additional, previously unselected human players, leaving them all open to suspicion whilst preventing momentum towards a wolf clue and the Seer getting a TB
But I gambled on the success of the first mission being genuine, and we are now 2/2
If Seer has a wolf, they should consider coming out I think
Dovie'andi se tovya sagain
I don't think the seer should come out at this point. One more successful mission and they have a talk box with their divinations, meaning that (assuming Harry allows this) one of their reports can give the details in general conversation. I would not out unless I thought there was a reasonable possibility that I might get eaten.
This user's extremely witty signature has failed to load. Please reload the page to see it. We apologize for the inconvenience. -Braingle
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Awesome sauce. I only have a couple minutes.
Just popping in to make my presence clear.
I'm traveling all day so I won't be able to get on in the next 10-12hours.
I'm placing a random vote for now.
Oh and our seer should still hold off even if they have one wolf. So close to getting the talk box that could help narrow down the other wolf.
Just popping in to make my presence clear.
I'm traveling all day so I won't be able to get on in the next 10-12hours.
I'm placing a random vote for now.
Oh and our seer should still hold off even if they have one wolf. So close to getting the talk box that could help narrow down the other wolf.
Only if the seer has jayo as a wolf, or in theory me, should they consider coming out as I explained in Rd 1. Mdc group choice in round 1 is more compelling than his Rd 2 choice.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I am suspicious of Jayo based upon what he has said this round and will be voting for him.
This sounded like a pre-meditated defense. And he asked the Seer to come forward which might have been a sneaky wolf tactic
For instance - If I was a wolf, I would not want to select so many players from the same as team last time - it would have been easy for me to sabotage the mission if I selected 3 additional, previously unselected human players, leaving them all open to suspicion whilst preventing momentum towards a wolf clue and the Seer getting a TB
This sounded like a pre-meditated defense. And he asked the Seer to come forward which might have been a sneaky wolf tactic
The absence of both rene and Tomatoes should not go overlooked in view of a long night round. I've already cast a vote for Tomatoes, so I will keep it there for the time being. Always subject to change with any good info.
It's a disease, not a punch line
It's a disease, not a punch line
Rene is at work right now, and he passed out early last night after working a 12 hr shift to pick up extra time. He'll be on tonight. I have to remind him to check this .. >.>
Edit: also see how zxc easily put Jayo in a majority, from Jess's SPV with decent reasoning. I'm keeping an eye on that one as well. Either for his claim to Jayo being possible, or his own wolfiness. Not sure which yet.
---This message was edited on 2015-10-05 17:09:06---
Edit: also see how zxc easily put Jayo in a majority, from Jess's SPV with decent reasoning. I'm keeping an eye on that one as well. Either for his claim to Jayo being possible, or his own wolfiness. Not sure which yet.
---This message was edited on 2015-10-05 17:09:06---
Ok another SPV from me. I just gave Harry a list of who I would want on the team for the next mission. A success this time would make things very easy for us, however a failure will reveal some exciting information.
i've been staring at the teams from round 1 for like 15 min with a nagging feeling of missing something important, but i can't figure it out what it is, and i' too tired now (as in fighting not to fall asleep) could anione take a look at it and see if we overlooked something?
It's when you draw it you realize what it really looks like
It's when you draw it you realize what it really looks like
I'm sorry I'm not following absy, what was jessey 'decent reasoning' for voting jayo, i looks like a pure spv to me as she gave no other reasoning (unless I missed a post or something). If zzbra was looking to jump on a majority why would he need it to be jayo? I actually agree with his post, jayos defense did seem unnatural and premeditated to an extent.
Just holding steady for a bit
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Just holding steady for a bit
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
absy wrote:
Cool. That doesn't get him off the hook for being a wolf though.
Okay, so I get what people are trying to analyze about MDC's first round vote. But I think any wolf would have allowed the first mission to succeed, hoping to sink the 2nd or 3rd. This round's team outcome will probably be the most important.
It's a disease, not a punch line
Rene is at work right now, and he passed out early last night after working a 12 hr shift to pick up extra time. He'll be on tonight. I have to remind him to check this .. >.>
Cool. That doesn't get him off the hook for being a wolf though.
Okay, so I get what people are trying to analyze about MDC's first round vote. But I think any wolf would have allowed the first mission to succeed, hoping to sink the 2nd or 3rd. This round's team outcome will probably be the most important.
It's a disease, not a punch line
The choice of teams should be interesting.
My defense was more preempted than premeditated!
I don't think shooting someone who has been on both success teams is the way to go this round
Dovie'andi se tovya sagain
My defense was more preempted than premeditated!
I don't think shooting someone who has been on both success teams is the way to go this round
Dovie'andi se tovya sagain
Neither do i, ur the seers job....settled in kansas...yay!
Will make a 2 phase strike plan shortly
We are referring to the group mdc voted to approve in Rd 1 (2 and 3 iirc) but ,old have just been aiming to appear human.
---This message was edited on 2015-10-05 19:23:59---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Will make a 2 phase strike plan shortly
We are referring to the group mdc voted to approve in Rd 1 (2 and 3 iirc) but ,old have just been aiming to appear human.
---This message was edited on 2015-10-05 19:23:59---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
On phone so too lazy to be thorough, absy and Rene likely not wolves (votes on mdc) windsor does not get that benefit....votes for fellow wolves almost compulsory.
Haven't made up my mind regarding evi, and trying to weigh whovians behavior last round, a wolf defending a wolf tends to do it indirectly, so probly not the way whovs did but possible.
Still thinking
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Haven't made up my mind regarding evi, and trying to weigh whovians behavior last round, a wolf defending a wolf tends to do it indirectly, so probly not the way whovs did but possible.
Still thinking
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I want to post this before this round teams are announced (about 2 hours from now) so that it is clear that I am just asking a question out of curiosity.
Harry: If a wolf is on a team that is chosen for the mission and that wolf gets shot during the same round, does his/her vote still count?
It's a disease, not a punch line
Harry: If a wolf is on a team that is chosen for the mission and that wolf gets shot during the same round, does his/her vote still count?
It's a disease, not a punch line
The_Spider wrote:
I meant he put Jayo in a majority WITH jess's SPV, and his own reasoning. Sorry. I didn't re-read it.
EDIT: reworded
---This message was edited on 2015-10-05 21:53:41---
I'm sorry I'm not following absy, what was jessey 'decent reasoning' for voting jayo, i looks like a pure spv to me as she gave no other reasoning (unless I missed a post or something). If zzbra was looking to jump on a majority why would he need it to be jayo? I actually agree with his post, jayos defense did seem unnatural and premeditated to an extent.
Just holding steady for a bit
Just holding steady for a bit
I meant he put Jayo in a majority WITH jess's SPV, and his own reasoning. Sorry. I didn't re-read it.
EDIT: reworded
---This message was edited on 2015-10-05 21:53:41---
I'd like to get mad about that conclusion, spid, but I can't counter it with facts, so. Haha this time it was a strategy following along with like a teaspoon of lazy bandwagoning (I've also been using my phone for this and iPhones don't have swype; gross).
I dunno how I feel about a jayo majority. It's too early; he raised the best counterpoint when he said he's been on success missions twice, though we have agreed that can mean nothing. I'd much rather go for the other shadowy figures that haven't contributed potentially incriminating posts or anything else, for that matter. That, and trying to see things from a wolf's perspective in this type of game isn't uncalled for, imo.
I'm the other mission leader an I tried to choose those shadowy players to pull some out into the open, maybe? I have to double check what the payoff is for the wolves to vote for a failure - there has to be one or they have no reason to vote failure. The premise would be void of helpfulness.
Reviewed the incentive for a failure vote. Finally getting how this round is a really pivotal one. (Sorry, was fuzzy on some details - takes me a while to catch on.) This is about to get cool.
---This message was edited on 2015-10-05 22:04:35---
Your mom's a no brainer.
I dunno how I feel about a jayo majority. It's too early; he raised the best counterpoint when he said he's been on success missions twice, though we have agreed that can mean nothing. I'd much rather go for the other shadowy figures that haven't contributed potentially incriminating posts or anything else, for that matter. That, and trying to see things from a wolf's perspective in this type of game isn't uncalled for, imo.
I'm the other mission leader an I tried to choose those shadowy players to pull some out into the open, maybe? I have to double check what the payoff is for the wolves to vote for a failure - there has to be one or they have no reason to vote failure. The premise would be void of helpfulness.
Reviewed the incentive for a failure vote. Finally getting how this round is a really pivotal one. (Sorry, was fuzzy on some details - takes me a while to catch on.) This is about to get cool.
---This message was edited on 2015-10-05 22:04:35---
Your mom's a no brainer.
Teams posted!
Index for WW/WTB databases - https://ksteven.github.io/playground/ (Data refreshed: 2021-12-07)
Index for WW/WTB databases - https://ksteven.github.io/playground/ (Data refreshed: 2021-12-07)
Leaving my vote where it is. Open to a majority on Jayo, or anyone really. Gotta get this round moving somewhere.
Reject
Approve
Reject
Approve
This being a new game to me i still haven't fully figured out peoples tells. I agree with what whov says she only listed two names and im sure one of those is human ( that being me.) so im going for tomatoes.
Oh also didnt see teams were out
Reject
Approve
Reject
Approve
1) Approve
2) Reject
EDIT: I've been thinking what Whov said for a bit now, and I honestly believe that if Rene was a wolf, he'd be asking me more questions out of confusion (not that I would answer him; I told him no exchanging info outside of game). I also don't feel ready for a Jayo vote either, as Windsor stated. So I'm going to put Tom in the majority for now. It's not in stone, but I think a good path to start with.
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 00:37:50---
2) Reject
EDIT: I've been thinking what Whov said for a bit now, and I honestly believe that if Rene was a wolf, he'd be asking me more questions out of confusion (not that I would answer him; I told him no exchanging info outside of game). I also don't feel ready for a Jayo vote either, as Windsor stated. So I'm going to put Tom in the majority for now. It's not in stone, but I think a good path to start with.
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 00:37:50---
Approve
Approve
It's a disease, not a punch line
Approve
It's a disease, not a punch line
Ok I chose my team based on this:
Spider is definitely human as he started the vote against MCD who was a wolf. Windsor was a wolf in both her previous games so I am counting on probability here. I sure am doubtful about absy as she keeps coming back at me so if my team fails we will have an easy shot next round.
Windsor's team has one too many strange/unknown combinations. If it fails we are unlikely to narrow down to one person for the next round.
I am not a wolf. You can shoot me now and find this out next round or wait one round to see what my team does. If we succeed we are this close to winning anyway.
Approve
Reject
Edit: Please take note of the people joining the Tomatoes majority. These are absy, rene, and whovi.
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 02:30:41---
Spider is definitely human as he started the vote against MCD who was a wolf. Windsor was a wolf in both her previous games so I am counting on probability here. I sure am doubtful about absy as she keeps coming back at me so if my team fails we will have an easy shot next round.
Windsor's team has one too many strange/unknown combinations. If it fails we are unlikely to narrow down to one person for the next round.
I am not a wolf. You can shoot me now and find this out next round or wait one round to see what my team does. If we succeed we are this close to winning anyway.
Approve
Reject
Edit: Please take note of the people joining the Tomatoes majority. These are absy, rene, and whovi.
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 02:30:41---
i did some math based on what possible scenarios are left (from my point of view)
image link **Edited by mod to make it just a link instead of a giant picture
so based on this i'm gonna say
reject (spider only one from the most likely human team and 2 from the team with highest probability of furryness)
approve (2 from the most likely human team and 2 from the team with highest probability of furryness)
and keep my vote where it is
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 22:02:44---
It's when you draw it you realize what it really looks like
image link **Edited by mod to make it just a link instead of a giant picture
so based on this i'm gonna say
reject (spider only one from the most likely human team and 2 from the team with highest probability of furryness)
approve (2 from the most likely human team and 2 from the team with highest probability of furryness)
and keep my vote where it is
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 22:02:44---
It's when you draw it you realize what it really looks like
Reject
Approve
Heading into a tax exam now, wish me luck!
Dovie'andi se tovya sagain
Approve
Heading into a tax exam now, wish me luck!
Dovie'andi se tovya sagain
For the love of Jesus Evi ... now I have to scroll my screen lol
Tomatoes, u are c omitting the gamblers fallacy in assuming windsor is human based on last games (she is probably Hyman based on probability, the same probability that everyone is human) but last game has nothing to do with it, this has been proven as nasuem, don't make me link storm u.
I disagree with jayo vote if the seer is following good advice ;)
I don't like absy or Rene votes based on mdc votes... I will make a firmer vote soonish after I get started working
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I disagree with jayo vote if the seer is following good advice ;)
I don't like absy or Rene votes based on mdc votes... I will make a firmer vote soonish after I get started working
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I'm leaning toward a group 2 shot (from round 1, the only one that matters ;) ) evi, dawn, or tomatoes
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 06:51:07---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 06:51:07---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Tomatoes wrote:
Ok so you explained your team choices, and threw shade on the people who are voting for you, yet did absolutely nothing to counter/explain how their reasoning isn't valid. Which only makes you look more suspicious. You could be human, yes. But nights are timing out so that means a wolf is inactive, at least relatively. Or they're doing it on purpose. Point is, you are one of the least active. So is my husband, but he's stated he's human and I believe him because he's confused enough as it is trying to learn this game. He'd probably throw his phone if he was a wolf lol. So unless a better option presents itself, I'm stickin with my vote. Wouldn't be the first time a human got shot for suspicion.
Ok I chose my team based on this:
Spider is definitely human as he started the vote against MCD who was a wolf. Windsor was a wolf in both her previous games so I am counting on probability here. I sure am doubtful about absy as she keeps coming back at me so if my team fails we will have an easy shot next round.
Windsor's team has one too many strange/unknown combinations. If it fails we are unlikely to narrow down to one person for the next round.
I am not a wolf. You can shoot me now and find this out next round or wait one round to see what my team does. If we succeed we are this close to winning anyway.
Approve
Reject
Edit: Please take note of the people joining the Tomatoes majority. These are absy, rene, and whovi.
Spider is definitely human as he started the vote against MCD who was a wolf. Windsor was a wolf in both her previous games so I am counting on probability here. I sure am doubtful about absy as she keeps coming back at me so if my team fails we will have an easy shot next round.
Windsor's team has one too many strange/unknown combinations. If it fails we are unlikely to narrow down to one person for the next round.
I am not a wolf. You can shoot me now and find this out next round or wait one round to see what my team does. If we succeed we are this close to winning anyway.
Approve
Reject
Edit: Please take note of the people joining the Tomatoes majority. These are absy, rene, and whovi.
Ok so you explained your team choices, and threw shade on the people who are voting for you, yet did absolutely nothing to counter/explain how their reasoning isn't valid. Which only makes you look more suspicious. You could be human, yes. But nights are timing out so that means a wolf is inactive, at least relatively. Or they're doing it on purpose. Point is, you are one of the least active. So is my husband, but he's stated he's human and I believe him because he's confused enough as it is trying to learn this game. He'd probably throw his phone if he was a wolf lol. So unless a better option presents itself, I'm stickin with my vote. Wouldn't be the first time a human got shot for suspicion.
Also...
Don't ever be too sure about anything!!!!!!!!!!!!
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 08:48:59---
Spider is definitely human as he started the vote against MCD who was a wolf.
Don't ever be too sure about anything!!!!!!!!!!!!
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 08:48:59---
I don't like charts or statistics, but the work that went into Evi's chart makes her less suspicious in my book. Generally, wolves don't go through that much analysis during a game.
Still, she's wrong about me.
It's a disease, not a punch line
Still, she's wrong about me.
It's a disease, not a punch line
I don't like either of the teams really, but...
Reject
Approve
This user's extremely witty signature has failed to load. Please reload the page to see it. We apologize for the inconvenience. -Braingle
Reject
Approve
This user's extremely witty signature has failed to load. Please reload the page to see it. We apologize for the inconvenience. -Braingle
Honey, we're moving to Denmark when we have kids.
Anyway.
Based on the information we have/potentially have, I'm not sure about a Tomatoes majority just yet. However, I didn't intend to keep my spv as a final vote, so - Based in part on probability/unknown information, and part on what I think from discussion, I'm putting a vote on Zxcv and seeing where that goes. Thoughts?
Your mom's a no brainer.
Voting dawn as per my initial strategy aND
Approve
reject
Why would anyone reject one and approve 2 as two proable humans are on it, I don't see any obvious wolf candidates to swing the balance
Voting 2 makes little sense to me...almost per se suspicious to approve of 2 unless it is a gamble to suss out a fail voting wolf, windsor is a wash being in both teams, so people are apparantly wagering there is a more likely wolf in spider, absy, tomato then zz, jess, Rene. ...doesn't quite wash to me
Rene and jess at least have inclusion in two to justify a 2 approval, jayo and dawn I'm failing to understand, and what teams would u like this round dawn? Maybe spider,absy,rene,dawn? It's really tough to get too much better than team 1
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 14:09:17---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Approve
reject
Why would anyone reject one and approve 2 as two proable humans are on it, I don't see any obvious wolf candidates to swing the balance
Voting 2 makes little sense to me...almost per se suspicious to approve of 2 unless it is a gamble to suss out a fail voting wolf, windsor is a wash being in both teams, so people are apparantly wagering there is a more likely wolf in spider, absy, tomato then zz, jess, Rene. ...doesn't quite wash to me
Rene and jess at least have inclusion in two to justify a 2 approval, jayo and dawn I'm failing to understand, and what teams would u like this round dawn? Maybe spider,absy,rene,dawn? It's really tough to get too much better than team 1
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 14:09:17---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I'm not sure how ur chart makes sense evi, if im reading it correctly u have 4 groups each with a percentage of having a wolf, since there are 2 wolvrs, the percentages must add up to 200%, they dont.
Am I missing something. I'm really not sure your conclusions are corrct, as u have largely said, if I assume group 3 and jess are human (a major assumption ), the tem I'm not on is most likely the wolf team...seems a littlr tenuous, especially based on real game voting evidence .
Also curious why windsor elected to her team someone she is willing to shoot this round?
OK nvm, was answered, not sure if it's a strong policy considering the humans can lock up a powerful bonus with one more success, but it was explained at least
Basically if tomato group wins the election and fails, tomato commits suicide, so he either is a wolf who blundered picking teams, or is forced to concede a third pass, or he is a human picking roster full of probable humans
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 14:40:54---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Am I missing something. I'm really not sure your conclusions are corrct, as u have largely said, if I assume group 3 and jess are human (a major assumption ), the tem I'm not on is most likely the wolf team...seems a littlr tenuous, especially based on real game voting evidence .
Also curious why windsor elected to her team someone she is willing to shoot this round?
OK nvm, was answered, not sure if it's a strong policy considering the humans can lock up a powerful bonus with one more success, but it was explained at least
Basically if tomato group wins the election and fails, tomato commits suicide, so he either is a wolf who blundered picking teams, or is forced to concede a third pass, or he is a human picking roster full of probable humans
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 14:40:54---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
give me a few to double check and i'll explain (never used the count if function before)
edit: okay first, the reason it doesn't add up to 200 % is because certain someones appear several times since they got on several teams(YES you and jayo are messing up my chart ), the top chart lists every single possible scenario (from my perspective) and then calculates the probability based on how many of the scenarios have a wolf on the team compared with the total number of scenarios, then, since we KNOW at least one of the teams is just humans (and percentages and mi tummi puts jess as a more likely human), i locked in her and team 3 as humans to play around with percentages then, which showed a higher probability of wolves in team one o.o so that's where i'm aiming this round, it's not much to go on but it's something
i don't get you who, i love charts and statistics, and sorry absy ^.^
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 15:10:21---
It's when you draw it you realize what it really looks like
edit: okay first, the reason it doesn't add up to 200 % is because certain someones appear several times since they got on several teams(YES you and jayo are messing up my chart ), the top chart lists every single possible scenario (from my perspective) and then calculates the probability based on how many of the scenarios have a wolf on the team compared with the total number of scenarios, then, since we KNOW at least one of the teams is just humans (and percentages and mi tummi puts jess as a more likely human), i locked in her and team 3 as humans to play around with percentages then, which showed a higher probability of wolves in team one o.o so that's where i'm aiming this round, it's not much to go on but it's something
i don't get you who, i love charts and statistics, and sorry absy ^.^
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 15:10:21---
It's when you draw it you realize what it really looks like
I am so confused as to how that chart works. Only 7 hours left. Keeping vote where it's at.
I don't see a strong reason for a jayo vote at this juncture, two of group 3 are proven human, I am at least, being seen as likely human, and Rene is also a reasonable bet for a human (at least in comparison to the group) jayo could be the sole wolf in group 3, but it's a needless gamble to shoot him here.
I also think tomatoes is not a good shooting option here, he picked a very human team, and if the mission fails (provided group 1 wins the vote) he will have put himself in a dangerous spot (if he is the wolf )
I strongly support a dawn vote here
Will back away for a while
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I also think tomatoes is not a good shooting option here, he picked a very human team, and if the mission fails (provided group 1 wins the vote) he will have put himself in a dangerous spot (if he is the wolf )
I strongly support a dawn vote here
Will back away for a while
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
you guys posted while i was editing o.o
It's when you draw it you realize what it really looks like
It's when you draw it you realize what it really looks like
Jayo wrote:
Just reiterating this. In round 3 I don't think voting this way is a good idea
Dovie'andi se tovya sagain
I don't think shooting someone who has been on both success teams is the way to go this round
Just reiterating this. In round 3 I don't think voting this way is a good idea
Dovie'andi se tovya sagain
I have an idea, may post later if thinking about it seems fruitful, we play 'if I was a wolf' and look at the group ramifications if each person was a wolf, could prove useful...maybe not haha
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
UGH, the chart is making me scroll to read posts.
First world problems.
It's a disease, not a punch line
First world problems.
It's a disease, not a punch line
dawnrising wrote:
I'm ok with letting Tom off the hook this round (though if team 2 goes, it's pointless), but I just can't feel a dawn vote either - because of ^ this post. He seemed to genuinely want to keep the seer under wraps for more divinations and pointing out how close they are to getting their box. That could be a hidden reminder to the wolves that "you can't F up this time, we're getting down to the wire!" but I don't read that vibe out of it. Thoughts? Spider, I know you're super extra good at pegging what people are, so how do you take this post? It's about the only decent thing contributed this round by him as well, which could be iffy but I just don't feel it. We're getting close to the wire for the round so if I'm going to switch votes, I want to be solid in my belief that it's a true wolf possibility.
I can confirm Rene only voted to approve 2 because he was on it lol. There was no logistics to that at all. He still doesn't get how the game works 100% yet.
I don't think the seer should come out at this point. One more successful mission and they have a talk box with their divinations, meaning that (assuming Harry allows this) one of their reports can give the details in general conversation. I would not out unless I thought there was a reasonable possibility that I might get eaten.
I'm ok with letting Tom off the hook this round (though if team 2 goes, it's pointless), but I just can't feel a dawn vote either - because of ^ this post. He seemed to genuinely want to keep the seer under wraps for more divinations and pointing out how close they are to getting their box. That could be a hidden reminder to the wolves that "you can't F up this time, we're getting down to the wire!" but I don't read that vibe out of it. Thoughts? Spider, I know you're super extra good at pegging what people are, so how do you take this post? It's about the only decent thing contributed this round by him as well, which could be iffy but I just don't feel it. We're getting close to the wire for the round so if I'm going to switch votes, I want to be solid in my belief that it's a true wolf possibility.
I can confirm Rene only voted to approve 2 because he was on it lol. There was no logistics to that at all. He still doesn't get how the game works 100% yet.
Could be, could be not , all in all its pretty easy cash in post for a wolf..looking for exactly your reaction. He knows the seer is unlikely to be baited out so he posts a no cost human helping post, not saying that's what he did, but I don't really give him much if any credit for it
Wolves don't often talk feelings hunches or reasonings early on, but they def will talk generic game planning, nothing player specific, they jump at those Chances. I'm not saying I have a strong sense dawn is a wolf, but again, I wput almost no stock in that post for human cred
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 16:00:01---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Wolves don't often talk feelings hunches or reasonings early on, but they def will talk generic game planning, nothing player specific, they jump at those Chances. I'm not saying I have a strong sense dawn is a wolf, but again, I wput almost no stock in that post for human cred
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 16:00:01---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Incidentally, the one thing oddly enough in dawns favor, I would expect him to have made one more fluffy innocuous bs post since then if he was a wolf, the lack of such is human evidence, but my dawn vote is aimed at hitting a group 2 target and I think he is better than evi or tomatoes.....I'd be happy to hear why I'm wrong thoigh
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 16:18:49---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Ok I see it now. I was missing the Group 2 from Round 1 connection. Dawn is better than Tomatoes because Tomatoes could have shot himself in the foot, and Evi because she's putting too much effort to be a wolf? I'll buy that for now. I'll join the Dawn vote and see if Rene is interested in changing his once he reads the new input. Though pretty much right now he just follows the crowd anyway.
Yeah I'm putting my eggs in maximizing seer info, not necessarily hitting a wolf this round. Could be mato .... I could buy a elect group 1, shoot mato, force through a pass/wolf red alert....if people sell me on tomatoes I'll bite, but on principal alone I'm gonna need someone to step up and try
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Switching to dawn. My vote on Jayo wouldn't help the round.
No reason for DR to be in the line of fire, twice in a success group so you want to shoot him?
Can't help but get a bad feeling from people not seeing a flaw in voting for him
Spid, when in doubt look to Occam's Razor - myself, Who and DR very likely humans on the face of it
Tomatoes - not anywhere near as cleared as those guys, not that they are 100% clear though
Spid, if the Seer followed your advice then maybe 2 of the peeps that voted all clear have been divined, I think it's better to shoot someone not on those groups this round, whatever about next round to most likely maximise the Seer info
Just my thoughts on it
Evita - no more charts please
Dovie'andi se tovya sagain
Can't help but get a bad feeling from people not seeing a flaw in voting for him
Spid, when in doubt look to Occam's Razor - myself, Who and DR very likely humans on the face of it
Tomatoes - not anywhere near as cleared as those guys, not that they are 100% clear though
Spid, if the Seer followed your advice then maybe 2 of the peeps that voted all clear have been divined, I think it's better to shoot someone not on those groups this round, whatever about next round to most likely maximise the Seer info
Just my thoughts on it
Evita - no more charts please
Dovie'andi se tovya sagain
Dawn was in two success groups?
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
My bad, long day must have read it wrong.
Still fairly good reason to not shoot him, Especially as Tommy hasn't been on a success mission
Dovie'andi se tovya sagain
Still fairly good reason to not shoot him, Especially as Tommy hasn't been on a success mission
Dovie'andi se tovya sagain
Possibly, will think after dinner
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I don't see a strong reason for a jayo vote at this juncture, two of group 3 are proven human, I am at least, being seen as likely human, and Rene is also a reasonable bet for a human (at least in comparison to the group) jayo could be the sole wolf in group 3, but it's a needless gamble to shoot him here.
This is flawed I think, Spider. There are equal odds of him being the lone wolf in group 3 as anyone being the lone wolf in any of the other groups.
I disagree, a group with more likely humans is more likely the all human group, and thus by virtue of that likelihood jayo is more likely human, given the info we have
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 18:35:38---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 18:35:38---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I will vote for dawn. I've got nothing. I wanted Tomatoes only because the night timed out, which is a flimsy reason since a wolf could just time his vote.
It's a disease, not a punch line
It's a disease, not a punch line
Just a place holding changr...I wanna examine one thing before the round potentially ends
Nvm, dawn didn't really fight for his good name, so gonna lock a vote in despite some ojections
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 19:24:21---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Nvm, dawn didn't really fight for his good name, so gonna lock a vote in despite some ojections
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 19:24:21---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I really wish my team goes for the mission as it'll make things clearer and easier for all of us. Because my team most probably has all humans.
Edit: absy, do you want me to explain why people voting for me because the nights are timing out isn't valid? It is very common for wolves to time their votes accordingly.
Spider, ok but if my team goes on the mission and fails, we can easily deduce windsor is a wolf. You might think I am so okay if my team fails you can shoot me first, find out I am human and then shoot windsor.
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 20:36:35---
Edit: absy, do you want me to explain why people voting for me because the nights are timing out isn't valid? It is very common for wolves to time their votes accordingly.
Spider, ok but if my team goes on the mission and fails, we can easily deduce windsor is a wolf. You might think I am so okay if my team fails you can shoot me first, find out I am human and then shoot windsor.
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 20:36:35---
Maybe it's partly to do with the fact I feel a dimension to this game escapes me, but I don't understand how dawn is a real candidate. I don't really have anything to the contrary, but I haven't seen anything to push me near the point of shooting. As it's a majority with one hour left, there's nothing I can do about it, not that I'm trying to. I'm just lukewarm on the prospect now that it's a thing. Though, Spider raises a good point when he says he never really defended himself. He in fact seems to have been weirdly absent so far this game, now that I look.
On the principle that I view my current vote only slightly better than the majority (since I don't have much other than his push on Jayo), I will join the majority until I maybe know more in future rounds.
JK! dawnrising is online. I wait.
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 21:18:24---
Your mom's a no brainer.
On the principle that I view my current vote only slightly better than the majority (since I don't have much other than his push on Jayo), I will join the majority until I maybe know more in future rounds.
JK! dawnrising is online. I wait.
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 21:18:24---
Your mom's a no brainer.
Not really sure why I'm being voted. Spider seems to think I didn't react to suspicion on me but if there was suspicion on me before I logged on last time I wasn't aware of it.
Tossing out a vote for the one player in a counter majority.
If I get killed, one of the players who jumped on my bandwagon is probably furry. Tomatoes was the first to vote me, so I don't think he is as wolfy as those who went along for the ride.
Again, if I die, good luck humans.
EDIT: Realized there are two players in a majority. Not really sure who to go for out of these, but Tomatoes was, like me, on the successful mission day 1, so I'll vote zxc, even though he hasn't gone along with the flow yet.
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 21:23:15---
This user's extremely witty signature has failed to load. Please reload the page to see it. We apologize for the inconvenience. -Braingle
Tossing out a vote for the one player in a counter majority.
If I get killed, one of the players who jumped on my bandwagon is probably furry. Tomatoes was the first to vote me, so I don't think he is as wolfy as those who went along for the ride.
Again, if I die, good luck humans.
EDIT: Realized there are two players in a majority. Not really sure who to go for out of these, but Tomatoes was, like me, on the successful mission day 1, so I'll vote zxc, even though he hasn't gone along with the flow yet.
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 21:23:15---
This user's extremely witty signature has failed to load. Please reload the page to see it. We apologize for the inconvenience. -Braingle
That's good enough for me. Though saying one of the voters on you is a wolf is pretty much a guarantee by probability. haha Okay, not a guarantee, but decent enough odds with added behavioural likelihood.
Keeping my vote as-is and go from there.
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 21:28:55---
Your mom's a no brainer.
Keeping my vote as-is and go from there.
---This message was edited on 2015-10-06 21:28:55---
Your mom's a no brainer.
The govt has intervened to put evi's ridiculously large picture into a link
Continue..
Index for WW/WTB databases - https://ksteven.github.io/playground/ (Data refreshed: 2021-12-07)
Continue..
Index for WW/WTB databases - https://ksteven.github.io/playground/ (Data refreshed: 2021-12-07)
WE DIDN'T VOTE ON THAT, STOP INHIBITING OUR RIGHTS
Your mom's a no brainer.
Your mom's a no brainer.
Poor dawnald was a rebel. The spies are working well for the govt...but the Commander lives and may have a fatal underground network set up by the crack of dawn (sorry dawn ).
Team 2 is up to bat this round. Will the mission succeed or fail?
---This message was edited on 2015-10-07 00:27:05---
Index for WW/WTB databases - https://ksteven.github.io/playground/ (Data refreshed: 2021-12-07)
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